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Neil O\'Riordan

Choppy Water For Cork

March 11th, 2010 by neil

On Friday night, Turner’s Cross will host League of Ireland football which is an achievement in itself considering the slow, painful and drawn-out death of Cork City Football Club. But, almost as inevitable as that club’s demise, was that a new club would spring up in its place.

And, sure enough, Cork City Foras Co-op played their first competitive fixture when they travelled to The Brandywell last Friday night to take on Derry City. The sooner they buy the former club’s name from the receiver the better because their current moniker is a bit of a handful. More of a surprise was the fact that Cork proved to be something of a handful themselves.

I would confidently venture that I was not alone in losing money by Derry’s failure to defeat Tommy Dunne’s side. Derry have retained much of the team which was good enough to finish fourth in the Premier Division so being held at home by a side which was literally thrown together at the last minute does not augur well for the season ahead. Still, I’m prepared to put it down to opening-day nerves.

Adrenaline may have helped Cork through that game but that can only carry them so far and there was a blow during the week when they were told they could not register three of their new signings. And, while there may be a carnival atmosphere at the Cross among supporters who now hold the fortunes of the city’s senior club in their hands, Waterford United are more than capable of spoiling that.

Waterford were a well-oiled machine last year which finished just three points off the play-offs as well as reaching the final of the EA Sports Cup and the last four of the FAI Cup. A 3-0 win over Wexford Youths last week suggests that, despite losing some key players in the close-season, they are a force to be reckoned with. It’s rare for a visitor to Cork to be favourites but Waterford are probably accurately priced at 11/10.

Derry, meanwhile, are also on the road and it remains to be seen how they react to the unglamorous surrounds of Jackman Park where they will face Limerick and they haven’t won on their last two visits there, both in 2003. Still, I fancy them at evens and am going to put €20 on a double which would yield €84. I’m also going to include them in a €5 accumulator along with Monaghan United to beat Longford Town and Finn Harps to defeat Salthill Devon where the potential return is €63.

Elsewhere, I’ m relying heavily on Bohemians to bring me in a profit. I’m backing them to beat both Glentoran in the Setanta Sports Cup on Saturday and UCD in the League on Tuesday as part of a treble which also includes a Galway United win over Bray Wanderers on Friday. A stake of €25 would bring a return of €95.64.

Gannon Stake

March 9th, 2010 by neil

We are well aware of players who have left the League of Ireland and have gone on to have successful careers across the water but it seems as though it is more difficult for managers to make the same transition. Of the 92 English League clubs, only three have bosses who have managed in the League of Ireland: Blacburn Rovers’ Sam Allardyce, Jim Gannon of Peterborough United and Notts County’s Steve Cotterill, although Burton Albion’s Paul Pescholsolido did have a stint as Jeff Kenna’s assistant at St Patrick’s Athletic.

The fact that all of the above had previously played in England is no coincidence. Clubs there tend to prefer to employ managers who know there way around the League and there is certainly something to be said for familiarity, even if sometimes the argument for broadening your horizons is stronger. Gannon is the only Irishman among the three and on Tuesday night he continues with what looks like a mission impossible to steer Peterborough clear of relegation when they host Sheffield United.

Gannon’s managerial career to date has been nothing if not interesting and in taking over at strugglers Peterborough he made it clear he would not shirk a challenge. The Dubliner cut his managerial teeth with Dundalk in June 2004. He got off to a bad start, losing 6-0 to Bray Wanderers, and things could only get better from there. They did but only to a point and by the time he had left he had won 21, drew 16 and lost 23 of his 60 league games in charge. Not a particularly bad record but not a particularly good one either.

He quickly fell on his feet by landing the job at his former club Stockport County where he really came to prominence. In the space of two years, he turned them from League Two strugglers into promotion challengers in League One. Then the wheels came off when the club went into administration. Next he was off to Motherwell where there was another bad start, losing 1-0 to Llanelli in the UEFA Cup. Things did improve, they lost just once in their opening 13 SPL games but, by the time he was sacked on December 28, there had been a steady decline.

But, publicly at least, the club said the decision was taken because of his refusal to commit to the club rather than results. Five weeks later he was back in work with Championship strugglers Peterborough. Six points from as many games is a better return than what went before but it won’t be enough to keep them in the division. In terms of this game, they have taken something from 10 of their 17 home games while Sheffield United have taken nothing in 10 of their 17 away matches. With that in mind, I’m going to back the double chance of a home win and draw with €30 at 1.56, even if a positive result will only delay the inevitable. With my remaining €20, I’m going to back a treble of Crystal Palace to beat Bristol City, QPR to defeat Plymouth and Dunfermline to win away to Airdrie United for a pay-out of €125.91.

A Minor Domestic

March 4th, 2010 by neil

In London on Wednesday morning, Giovanni Trapattoni was in flying form, despite Ireland’s 2-0 defeat to Brazil the previous night. He put on a show when he mimicked an agent putting a gun to a football club chairman to illustrate the point that was not what happened in club negotiations and that clubs were to blame for players’ exorbitant wages.

He also told me something which I had known for a long time – that my wife is dangerous. Bemused by my persistent questioning about Northern Ireland-born players declaring for the Republic, he asked me if I was from the six counties (though obviously not using those exact words). I replied that I was not but my wife was. He then said something which was translated as ‘you’re trying to bring water to your own mill’ before adding ‘be careful, your wife is dangerous’. You know only the half of it Trap.

But the most striking observation of all was ‘there is no league in Ireland’. Clearly, that is empirically incorrect. There is a league in Ireland. In fact, there is a League of Ireland, even if only five of the 26 counties are represented in the Premier Division with two of the four provinces having no representation in the top flight. But, for many in this country, there may as well be no league and it hardly helps the FAI’s efforts to promote the league when their international manager says such a thing.

For those who do care the League of Ireland resumes on Friday night with champions Bohemians kicking off with a live TV game at home to Sporting Fingal, who won promotion through the play-offs and also lifted the FAI Cup. It’s a tough opener for Fingal and, although they are stronger than any promoted side in recent memory, Bohs should still have enough to beat them. They are 4/9 which isn’t great so I’m going to put €10 on a draw at half-time and Bohs at full-time at 7/2.

Elsewhere, there are two clubs which have had particularly chaotic pre-seasons – Bray Wanderers and Cork City who are at home to Dundalk and away to Derry City respectively. I’m putting €30 on a double which would pay out €89.50. With my final tenner, I’m going for an accumulator on the five Premier Division games – home wins for Bohs, St Pat’s, Drogheda, an away victory for Dundalk and a draw between the two Rovers on Saturday. It would pay out €229.54

As for the season as a whole I’m going to put €100 on Bohs to win the title for a third successive year at 11/10, €50 on Derry City to win the First Division at 11/5 and €25 each way on Bohs’ Paddy Madden to the league’s top scorer at 12/1. And those stakes will be enough to keep me interested, even if Trap sees the League of Ireland as nothing more than a minor domestic.

Travel Sickness

March 2nd, 2010 by neil

They say some teams don’t travel well. And it is also true of journalists. Don’t get me wrong, I love going abroad as much as the next man; when the draw for the Euro 2012 qualifying campaign was made the more obscure Eastern European countries in our group the better as far as I was concerned.

But you may recall my difficulties on my last two visits to Paris: I left my laptop on the plane on the way over for the World Cup play-off match; and, on my way back from the Six Nations game, I got stuck in Charles de Gaulle airport for nine hours on St Valentine’s Day because my flight was overbooked. So I’ve been down and out in Paris and, now, London can be added to the list.

I’ve had problems here before; I had my passport stolen 15 months ago and on Monday night my coat joined the ever-burgeoning list of my personal effects to which someone else has helped themselves. Approaching the end of my pint, I walked the six feet from my table to the bar in a pub in Islington to order a second. While there, I saw a member of staff picking up my scarf which had fallen on the ground. That drew my attention to the fact my coat was not on the stool where I had left it approximately 30 seconds later.

Thankfully, there was nothing of value in it other than a receipt for lunch. I did briefly panic hours later when I realised my key for my hotel room plus a card with the room number on it was in my pocket but mercifully the thief had not decided to let himself in and help himself to my laptop, iPod, passport and whatever else were in there.

Ironically, I had to pay a trip to Wapping on Tuesday morning for a security briefing ahead of the World Cup in South Africa. I think the advisor realised he would have to start at the very beginning when I told him what had happened the previous evening. If I can’t stay out of trouble in Islington, what chance have I got in Johannesburg?

Anyhow, Ireland under Giovanni Trapattoni have been a bit more resilient on the road than I have. Although Ireland have lost three times at home in his reign (in friendly games against Australia and Poland and the first chance of the World Cup play-off against France), they are unbeaten in nine matches on foreign soil. In fact, Ireland’s last defeat abroad was against the Czech Republic in September 2007. Considering Ireland have played away to the likes of Italy and France since, that’s pretty impressive.

However, that surely has to end in the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night when Ireland take on Brazil with a back four of Stephen Kelly, Paul McShane, Sean St Ledger and Kevin Kilbane. Ireland can play above themselves but getting a result against the South Americans must be beyond them. I’m backing Brazil with the Asian handicap as part of a treble with Italy to beat Cameroon and Portugal to beat China on Wednesday. A €50 stake would pay out €204.

Bordering On The Ridiculous

February 26th, 2010 by neil

There was a time when it was not clear if, Linfield aside, there was any benefit for Irish League clubs to be in the Setanta Sports Cup because, quite simply, they weren’t good enough. The decision to expand the competition from six to eight and then nine was one of the many mistakes that have been made in tinkering in its format because there is not enough depth in quality north of the border.

In fact, the most impressive results achieved by Irish League clubs, recently at least, have been default with the record books showing that Linfield defeated Derry City 3-0 with Cliftonville beating Cork City by the same scoreline. Of course, with one club expelled from the league and the other not granted a licence shortly before it was wound up, those games never actually took place.

And, so, the latest ill-thought-out format of the competition resumes on Friday night with the nine teams down to seven and competing for four semi-final berths. In all, there are three games over the weekend and I do believe the northern clubs have a better chance than normal, even if I’m not expecting them to reach the heights of 3-0 wins handed out by the Setanta Sports Cup organising committee.

The first game up is at Richmond Park where a new-look St Pat’s side will host Linfield. Just five players remain from last year’s squad and Pete Mahon has, bearing in mind the budgetary constraints, assembled a decent squad. When these sides last met in Inchicore, in April 2008, St Pat’s played them off the park, although they later managed to conspire to finish bottom of their group. It will be closer this time and I fancy a Linfield/draw double chance at 1.60

At 3pm on Saturday, Coleraine host Bohemians at The Showgrounds. Coleraine are just six points off Linfield at the top of the Irish League and boast Northern Ireland’s top scorer in Rory Patterson whose 26 league goals to date have earned him his first international call-up. I wouldn’t rule out Coleraine making it difficult for Bohs who laboured to a Leinster Senior Cup win over Bluebell midweek but 8-15 for an away win are still reasonably generous odds for the best team on the island.

At the other Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers host Cliftonville knowing that, because of Cork’s demise, they are already assured of a place in the last four. With that in mind, the Reds’ odds of 4-1 look over-priced but I’m going to be a little more cautious and go for a double chance of an away win at 1.98. I’m putting those in a €20 treble which would yield €97.54. I’m also going to put €10 on that Cliftonville win and €10 on the draw between Linfield and St Pat’s. I’m putting my final €10 on an ambitious accumulator on home wins for Chelsea, Birmingham, Burnley, Middlesbrough, Hertha Berlin and Hercules which would yield €410.19.

Northern Exposure

February 22nd, 2010 by neil

It’s hard not to have a little sympathy for the Irish Football Association. It was bad enough that on the same day Nigel Worthington announced his Northern Ireland squad for the friendly against Albania that two players born in the six counties were included in Giovanni Trapattoni’s panel for the rather more glamorous fixture against Brazil.

There is no doubt that Darron Gibson and Marc Wilson would enhance Worthington’s squad and probably his team, although oddly enough the centre of defence is one area where they are reasonably strong; the presence of Jonny Evans, Aaron Hughes and Chris Baird means Wilson might have to be accommodated at right-back.

Still, Worthington has known for a long time that the allegiance of the Manchester United midfielder and Portsmouth defender is to the Republic, even though they were briefly in the Northern Ireland underage system. But how embarrassing must it have been for him to unveil his squad with Shane Duffy’s name in it only to be informed that he did not wish to travel to Albania?

Duffy played for Northern Ireland all the way up to under-21 level and made it as far as the bench for the senior team for their friendly against Italy last June. Worthington opted not to use him in the 3-0 defeat in Pisa when, had he done so, he would have been tied to the North for ever more, or at least until the next FIFA rule change. But it is a sad state of affairs when a manager has to cap someone to secure his services, even if there will be a sense of relief among Republic fans if James McCarthy takes to the pitch at the Emirates as it will mean speculation about a switch to Scotland can finally be forgotten.

Now, Duffy wishes to play for the Republic. That, of course, is his right and perhaps it is understandable given most of his family hail from Donegal. But you can understand the frustration north of the border whereby they have given a player a schooling in underage international football only for him to defect just as he is making a name for himself, having twice played for Everton in Europe before his 18th birthday.

Whether the three players mentioned above have made their decisions because they cannot identify with a team generally associated with the majority Protestant community or because of career considerations (believing that success is more likely to be attained with the Republic) only they can truly answer. And, at times, the Irish FA have not been as active as they could and should have been to ensure Windsor Park was not a cold house for Catholics (Martin O’Neill and Neil Lennon were both booed while playing for their country). But, in the spirit of a new Northern Ireland, or at least moving towards it, it would be pretty petty for those of us south in the border to revel in Worthington’s difficulties.

Of course, there is an obvious solution to all of this which is a united Ireland team and, for those of a nationalist persuasion, it’s always tempting to daydream about how many more major tournaments they might have had a direct interest in if forces had been combined. But that doesn’t look like happening any time soon meaning Northern Ireland look destined to struggle unless the Irish FA can create a situation whereby everyone born there wants to represent their country.

Their job would  be easier if the team was successful but, of course, it is difficult for that to happen if the manager is working with restricted options – the classic chicken-and-egg situation. I’m going to try and introduce a spirit of ecumenism by backing Linfield to beat Crusaders and Aston Villa to defeat Crystal Palace as a double which would yield €113.64.

(A) Mick Cries Wolf

February 19th, 2010 by neil

Not long after Kevin Doyle had signed for Wolves, I got quite excited by something I read on the club’s official website. It had Mick McCarthy quoted along the lines of saying that his record signing should not be playing for Wolves but for a club like Manchester United or Chelsea.

The fact that such a statement would not have gone down well with the Molineux faithful was of no interest to me; I was just pleasantly surprised that McCarthy – not normally a man given to hyperbole – had talked up the Ireland international to such an extent. I promptly stuck the tale down on our news list with the expectation that it would merit a decent show in the following day’s paper.

Now while you might not be too inclined to believe Willie O’Dea if he told you he had never uttered something which he had been quoted as saying, McCarthy would have had me bang to rights if I’d gone ahead and published the story as above. Thankfully, I had a second look at the page and, upon closer examination, it turned out it was his former manager (Mick Wallace) rather than his current one who had bigged up Doyle. No disrespect to the Wexford Youths owner but the words were not quite so newsworthy coming from his mouth.

Anyhow, eight months down the track and McCarthy is indeed (don’t worry, I did check it was him) talking about the possibility of him playing for a club of that stature, on the back of his performances for him since his summer move from Reading. McCarthy has spoken about the possibility that the striker may be the subject of a summer bid from one of the big boys.

He could certainly help his cause with a good showing at home to Chelsea on Saturday afternoon when he will have the unenviable task of trying to keep John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho occupied on his own as a result of Wolves adopting a 4-5-1 formation. It helped them to a 1-0 win over Spurs last week and there has not been more than one goal either way in any of their last four games.

With Chelsea missing Frank Lampard and Ashley Cole, not to mention Michael Essien, Deco,  Alex, Jose Bosingwa and Juliano Belletti, and a trip to Italy to face Jose Mourinho’s Inter Milan side on Wednesday, Carlo Ancelotti’s side may be vulnerable. Therefore, I’m putting €50 on Wolves with the + 1.0, +1.5 handicap. Clearly, I’m not the only one who believes they have a chance as in the hour between I first looked at the bet and placed it, the odds had come in from 2.14 to 2.04.

Still Down And Out In Paris

February 14th, 2010 by neil

Did I mention that I’m not particularly enamoured with Paris? On the last trip here (better remembered by most for Thierry Henry’s handball) I lost my laptop. On this occasion, I might just lose my mind. At the time of writing, I have spent the last eight hours or so in Charles De Gaulle Airport.

Admittedly, I still have some way to go to match the exploits of Mehran Karimi Nasseri – the inspiration for the film The Terminal – but this place is becoming something of a second home. In November, our flight home was delayed by, if memory serves me correctly, about six hours. On this occasion, my flight was overbooked and, by the time I had negotiated the Dublin-esque delays at passport control and security, the issue of whether I would win promotion from the standby list to the passenger list had been irrelevant as the gate had closed.

This was Mehran’s abode for 18 years so I won’t complain too much but it does seem like cupid’s little sadistic joke to have someone in Paris on St Valentine’s Day but in the airport when their better half is at home. Who says romance is dead?

In the absence of anything better to do (at €5.30 for a 33cl can of Heineken, drowning your sorrows is an expensive business) it has at least given me the time to have a goo at the odds for the midweek games.  The stand-out game is obviously the Champions League tie between AC Milan and Manchester United where, of course, David Beckham will come up against the club where he made his name.

Strangely, both teams look to be in decline because of the departure of key players: Cristiano Ronaldo from United; and Kaka from AC Milan.  Both, of course, went to Real Madrid who are also in action, away to Lyon. There does not appear to be a correlation between the weakening of United and Milan and the strengthening of Real. Manuel Pellegrini’s side took only one point from their two group meetings with Milan and will probably settle for a draw in France. Similarly, United would be happy with a draw at the San Siro but Milan have not won a home game in Europe this season. So I’ve a feeling United may go for the jugular and, with that in mind, I’m going for the enhanced double of a draw in Lyon and an away win in Milan, €15 at 8/1.

Elsewhere, I’ve decided to target games involving Belgian clubs. For no apparent reason. Red Bull Salzburg have excelled in the Europa League and look well-priced at 2/1 to win away to Standard Liege; Valencia are not the force they were and may be content with a draw (priced at 23/10) away to Club Brugge while Athletic Bilbao have been having a decent season and are rightly favourites at 4/6 to win at home to Anderlecht. I’m going for three doubles on those results with €10 on each for a maximum return of €204. Finally, I’m putting €5 on Grimsby Town to take advantage of Notts County’s fatigue from chasing Fulham around the park today at 5/1. Au revoir Paris….

 

And I’ve decided to go with a Belgian theme for my tips

Down And Out In Paris

February 11th, 2010 by neil

At approximately 4:15am on Friday – when presumably most of you will still be in the land of nod – I will be dragging myself out of bed to make my way to Paris for the Six Nations game on Saturday. Not, obviously, that I’m complaining. There are certainly worse places in the world to spend a weekend than on the banks of the Seine.

But you will forgive me if I don’t have great memories of the city and I’m not even talking about Thierry Henry’s handball. That was only the second most serious robbery in the French capital that week. Because, let’s face it, what’s a place at the World Cup compared to my laptop.

On a similarly early flight, I had conscientiously taken out my computer to write up a Romuald Boco feature in advance of the FAI Cup final. That done, back it went into the seat pocket in front of me (it has occurred to me that had I flown Ryanair this never would have happened). The problem was that was where it stayed after I disembarked the plane.

I merrily took my bag from the overhead locker, got myself on a train into town, checked into my hotel, went up to my room and opened my bag to continue work on my laptop except there was no laptop there. A week of phone calls to Aer Lingus brought no joy meaning the only conclusion I can draw is that there is some Aer Lingus air steward or cleaner happily reading and re-reading a feature on an obscure Beninese football plying his trade in the League of Ireland.

Obviously, losing a valuable piece of office equipment is something that should generally be avoided, if only because of the inconvenience caused to me. Said Boco feature – not to mention a detailed study I had done into how no team had lost at home in a World Cup play-off and progressed in the second leg – had to be rewritten in a sweaty internet cafe. It could have been done on the iMac in my hotel room except I managed to lock myself out of my work e-mail because the computer had no backslash which I needed to log on. Oh and I had to beg, steal and borrow computers after the press conference and for the game itself. You get the picture – I was not a happy bunny.

So I’m hoping for a better trip this time around and my mood has been helped by collecting €359.95 from my €50 stake on Wednesday night.  I could have got €687.78 had I done it as an accumulator but, given I said I’d settle for a profit, I’m not going to complain. I’m going for a similar approach this weekend, backing wins for Middlesbrough, Leicester City and Barnsley in the Championship and Fulham and Manchester City in the FA Cup. I’m doing this with five different four-game accumulators of €10 each which would pay out a maximum of €302.03. I think Paris owes me that much.

Searching For Home Comforts

February 9th, 2010 by neil

Well, it didn’t take long for Daryl Murphy to disprove my theory that David Healy represented better value to score the first goal in Ipswich Town’s game against Middlesbrough, did it? 23 seconds in fact and my mood was not helped when I learned Healy had supplied the assist. If Healy is to fulfil his potential before it is too late he had better learn quickly that selfishness is a key trait for any top striker.

As if that was not bad enough, another key theory of mine this season is that Livingston – who are operating in the Scottish Third Division with a squad which was expecting to compete in the First Division – generally represent good value also turned out to be flawed. Their careless throwing away of a 2-0 lead to Forfar Athletic, with the equaliser coming in the last minute, cost me €66.

Undeterred, I’ve studied the figures and decided to put forward a new thesis which will provide the justification for my bets this week and it is that playing at home is providing more of an advantage for teams in the Premier League than perhaps it has done in the past with even the top teams susceptible to suffering set-backs on the road.

Hull City and Burnley have yet to win on their travels while a further six teams have won just once outside their own stadium. Considering we are more or less two-thirds of the way through the season, that comes as quite a surprise. League leaders Chelsea have lost a quarter of their dozen away games; second-placed Manchester United have lost four of their 12; Arsenal in third have lost four from 13; and fourth-placed Liverpool have lost five of 13.

I’m using these statistics in regard to Wednesday night’s Premier League matches where three of the top four – Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool – are all away from home. The other, Arsenal, are hosting Rafa Benitez’ side. Arsene Wenger’s side had the edge over Liverpool when the sides met at Anfield and, although they had contrasting fortunes at the weekend, I think the Gunners will win again. Chelsea are away to Everton and United travel to Aston Villa. I think there is real potential for two shocks here: Everton were unbeaten in nine games prior to losing the Merseyside derby and Villa’s direct style will cause United’s fragile defence problems. I’m going to go for a double chance of a home win an draw in both games. I’m also backing Blackburn Rovers to defeat Hull.

I don’t expect to get all of the results right so I’m going for four trebles of €12.50 each. The potential return is €359.95. I’d happily settle for a profit of some sort.

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Premier League

Monday, 1 March 2010 00:00 UK
PosTeamPGDPTS
1Chelsea283961
2Man Utd284260
3Arsenal283558
4Tottenham282349
5Man City271749
6Liverpool281748
7Aston Villa261645
8Birmingham 27-240
9Fulham28338
Ladbrokes Ladbrokes