For a brief while after Ireland’s pre-match press conference on Tuesday, I believed that Giovanni Trapattoni’s team could do the impossible and get the result they need in Paris to qualify for the World Cup. Both Trap himself and Robbie Keane were so bullish about our chances that it was hard not to be won over by their optimism.
Usually, I am an optimist when it comes to Ireland games anyway (save for the Steve Staunton era where I prepared for the worst and was never disappointed, often witnessing something that I couldn never have envisaged). The closer it gets to kick-off time, my belief that the team can defy the odds and claim victory over a more illustrious opponent swells. Not this time.
A lot of Trap and Keane’s chirpiness appears to rest on what Ireland did in the qualification group but that does not really stand up to scrutiny. Yes, they did extremely well to finish second behind Italy and remain unbeaten in ten games but did they really do anything to suggest that they can either win by two goals or win by one goal and progress either on the away goals rule or by way of penalty shootout? I don’t think so.
Clearly, Ireland need to score but they have not done so in two games. Set-pieces were an area were it was said Ireland could exploit France but they failed to do so at Croke Park. That is a worry because we have not scored from open play in four games and only once in seven. Will the team suddenly become prolific? Probably not.
Let’s pretend Ireland score first. ‘Great’ you think but then you remember that there were five occasions in the group where Ireland took the lead only to be pegged back. Only once – in Cyprus – did they manage to retake the lead. Ireland could really do with keeping a clean sheet but the had just three in the group – twice against Montenegro and once against Cyprus. The only teams they beat away from home were Cyprus and Georgia. It is plainly obvious that defeating France will be a much tougher task.
That is an assessment of the current side but there is no solace to be taken from history either. Ireland have never beaten a side of France’s standing in their own back yard with the 1967 victory over Czechoslovakia and the one over Scotland 20 years later standing out as our best results on the road in qualifiers. Furthermore, there is no precedent in the 59 previous World Cup play-offs of a side losing at home in the first leg and going on to qualifying.
Thar’s grim reading I know but it could be a grim evening. To start with the token patriotic bet, I’m backing John O’Shea as first scorer at 50-1 with five quid each way. I’m putting ten on France to win with two or fewer goals at 2-1 and another ten on a draw at half-time and a French win at full-time at 10-3. Go prove me wrong boys. Finally, I’m putting twenty on a treble of Italy, Germany and Holland to win their friendly games, for which the odds are a little over 4-1.
