Galway Races, one of the good guides

We have visited trends before, the trends of a race, the analysis of the last 10 or 20 renewals of a race and the determination of the type of horse that tends to win or run well in it.  Some bettors love trends, some have no time for them.  Personally, I like them quite a lot.  At its worst, the analysis of trends is just another piece of artillery that the bettor has in his armoury.  At its best, it is a hugely powerful tool in the incessant search for value.

I can’t help thinking that bettors who dismiss trends as a waste of time don’t fully get them.  Just because the names of the last two winners of the King George, and three of the last five, began with the letter D doesn’t mean that the race favours that letter.  Of course it doesn’t.  And I’m not certain of the validity of the favourites’ trend that is regularly trotted out either.  The last five favourites have won the King George, so does that mean that Conduit has a better chance than his odds suggest on Saturday, or is this trend factored into his price already?  Not certain, but I suggest the latter is the case.

I await Paul Jones’s Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide every year.  I make sure to have Ian Grimwood’s Summer Festivals Betting Guide on my desk as soon as it is out.  I got David Myers’s Racing Trends Revealed book last year, and it is very good in the sense that it covers most of the decent races in the UK, but I think it misses something in translation.  I have been on to Paul Jones about doing a Royal Ascot trends book, but he doesn’t think there would be a real demand for it, not like there is for the Cheltenham book, and he might be right.  I do my own trends for some of the other races during the year, focussing on expected value versus actual returns.  Did you know that, if you had £1 each-way on every five-year-old that ran in the Pierse Hurdle over the last 11 years, you would be showing a net loss of £105?  Also, it’s all very well knowing that Aidan O’Brien has saddled three of the last 10 winners of the King George, but how many runners has he had, what prices were they, and what would your return be for a level £1 bet on each of them?  Answer: he has had nine runners, and you would be showing a net loss of £3.58.

So when the Galway Races Guide landed on my desk during the week, I was hopeful, and I wasn’t disappointed.  Truth be told, it surpassed my expectations.  This is an excellent trends book.  Tony Keenan and PJ Walsh have hit the nail on the head in terms of pointing out trends that are relevant in the eight biggest races during the week.  For example, would it surprise you to know that the last six winners of the Galway Plate had run a maximum of three times in handicap chases, and that the last two winners were actually running in their first?  Or that, in the last 10 years, no winner of the big mile handicap on the Tuesday, usually run at a breakneck pace and finishing off up Ballybrit’s punishing hill, came from off the pace, and three made all?

On top of the race-by-race analysis, there is a really interesting piece by Ger Delahunty on handicaps, highlighting general handicap trends to look out for next week, little pieces of information that might give you an edge, like the fact that 30% of handicap winners at Galway had won last time out, compared to a national average of 14%.  So don’t overlook the obvious.  You don’t always have to find the plot horse.

There are other really useful pieces, like an in-running analysis (remember the punishing hill – carnage), a stable tour with David Marnane and a note on Galway specialists.  All in all, the book is an essential piece of equipment if you are going west next week, up there with your toothbrush and your ATM card.  Another tool in the incessant search for value.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

Categories: Horse racing Irish Racing