A cracking card at Punchestown this Sunday, featuring the clash of the Two Mile Kings, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe, in the Tied Cottage Chase. There is also a couple of interesting handicaps to tackle and these races provide the main focus for our betting involvement.

Punchestown 2.20: OUR MONTY (EW 10-1)

I am leaning towards the lighter weights, rightly or wrongly today, and will take a chance on Our Monty here, in the hope that he can recapture his late 2009 sparkle. Willie Mullins charge was a very progressive performer back then, winning three handicaps on the bounce before being sidelined for in excess of two years.

He returned a few weeks ago in a conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse and despite getting beaten 27 lengths by Dooney’s Rock, he did not shape without promise considering the length of his absence. Ruby Walsh was not particularly hard on the horse at any stage of the race and it was encouraging that he was finishing reasonably well, passing two horses between the final two flights.

Mullins is a past master at nursing horses back to top form after absences and Our Monty is still a pretty young horse at the age of nine. He looked like an animal going places a couple of seasons ago and if he is near peak fitness today, he could well be a player off a light weight.

Punchestown: 3.25: SMOKING ACES (EW 10-1), and PORTRAIT KING (9-1)

Stamina will be at a premium in this Three and a Half Mile contest and in view of this, I am going with the two horses who fought out the finish of a simalar race at Fairyhouse a couple of months ago.

Smoking Aces got the job done in fine style on that occasion, and appeals as a horse who is still unexposed and progressive as a stayer. Responding well to the application of blinkers, Tom Taaffe’s charge travelled smoothly through the race and displayed a touch of class in picking of all of his rivals gradually.

He was subsequently dropped back in trip for the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas and despite finding things happening too quick there, he was not disgraced doing his best work at the finish of that well contested handicap.

This stamina sapping marathon type contest will be much more to his liking today and with Adrian Heskin claiming a valuable five pounds, I envisage him running a big race.

Portrait King cannot be dismissed either. Although beaten decisively enough by Smoking Aces in the Fairyhouse race, this seven year old also appeared to relish the distance and looks a real tough slogger in the making.

It was probably a career best from Mike Phelan’s charge,putting in a gutsy battling effort having raced prominently throughout. His earlier bumper and hurdles form had always indicated a real  stamina test was what he needed and he should handle the demands of today’s contest better than most.

I think it was a wise move by connections to have rested the horse since Fairyhouse and he should be well recovered and fresh for another tough battle today after a two month break. Portrait does not quite have the class of some of his rivals, but he will keep galloping and could be a threat off a low weight with Davy Condon on board.

Punchestown 3.55 SCOTSIRISH
The ground is a little bit more testing than ideal for ScotsIrish but he looks in a different league too these rivals and he should be able to cope. A high class handicapper over the years, Willie Mullins has switched the horse to this Cross Country chasing sphere following a slight dip in his form in conventional races.

It has proved to be a wise move by the Closutten maestro as ScotsIrish looked a natural when easily winning a banks race last November. He was then unlucky to be carried out in the big Cross Country chase at Cheltenham in December where Garde Champetre ran out a fortuitous winner.

Enda Bolger’s charge cannot be underestimated, but his best days are probably behind him now and Scotsirish should have too many gears on this occasion.

Banker: Punchestown 355: ScotsIrish
Bluffer: Punchestown 325: Smoking Aces: (EW 10-1)
Dreamer: EW Double, Our Monty 220 and Smoking Aces 325 (132-1 EW Double)

regards

Four selections on the sand today where it might pay to follow some horses in form.

WAABEL 2.00 Lingfield (7/2 general)

Waabel enjoyed a profitable winter campaign over course and distance last winter, winning twice, and looks on the sort of mark to go in again on his favourite track this afternoon.

Jim Best did well with the gelding, his last win coming off a rating of 75.  Transferred to Richard Guest in the summer, Waabel made a slow start to his winter campaign, but has plummeted in the weights as a result and can now race from a mark of 61.

He has competed in every week of this sprint series over the past month, with finishing positions of 3463 suggesting his time is close, Nathan Alison has been booked today, which means he can carry 5lbs less with his claim, so with an inside draw, Waabel has plenty going for him.

SHIFTING STAR 3.00 Lingfield (11/1)

This ex Walter Swinburn trained gelding has been competing in a high level of handicaps for several seasons now, but has enjoyed a new lease of life since joining John Bridger in the autumn.

Generally campaigned at 6f for his previous yard, Shifting Star has enjoyed a step up in distance to 7f and 1m, failing by a short-head over 1m at Kempton last month, before going one better at Lingfield last time out.

Although he has been upped 4lbs in the ratings to 88, Shifting Star has won off as high as 92 in the past, so whilst he is in peak form, he still has the ability to defy his new mark.

ART SCHOLAR 3.35 Lingfield (7/2 general)

Michael Appleby is enjoying the form of his life at the moment and his Art Scholar can demonstrate his training talents in this high class handicap.

A promising juvenile with Gary Moore, he lost his way badly last season and dropped to a mark as low as 49 in June when landing a modest handicap at Yarmouth for his new trainer.  Clearly the horse had not permanently lost his ability as Art Scholar has progressed back to his best form with six wins in total, culminating in a comprehensive 3l win at Kempton last time.

A horse who enjoys coming off a strong pace, he should get that with the front-running 2m stayer Exemplary in the line up surely needing to set a decent tempo to enhance his own chances.

McCOOL BANANAS 5.15 Wolverhampton (2/1 general)

Still a maiden after 12 starts, McCool Bananas won’t get a better opportunity than this to get off the mark.  In danger of becoming a nearly horse after four second places, all at this track, his turn does look near after two recent near misses.

He can race off the same mark as when runner-up on Monday where he was arguably defeated by his wide draw that left him with too much ground to make up late on.  He was also defeated in a photo over 9 1/2f last month.

A kinder draw today gives him a fine chance and as a hold up horse, he should get the strong pace he needs to bring his strong finishing burst into play.

Any odds compiler will learn very quickly upon entering into the world of GAA trading that at this time of year, a little bit of money can tell a big story. In theory the bookies are out to make money with every event they offer. but in practice January is a time to duck and weave, to dodge the big money and wait until the bigger occasions such as national league and club championship fixtures take place in the spring. This week it’s the Clare hurlers that are the subject of the “plunge” in the betting market, though some readers would be shocked if they saw how little money it might take to move a team from 1/2 into 1/5 in a competition like the Waterford Crystal Cup, as has happened in this case.

On the face of it, Clare make little or no appeal this week. Waterford IT have good form in this competition having beaten Tipperary in last year’s competition and their draw with the Waterford county team a couple of weekends ago suggests that they are moving reasonably well at this time of year. Clare in turn would have a lot of hurlers unavailable due to their own college commitments, and under new management, there would be no reason to believe that they would be ready to hit the ground running. In fact nothing that Clare have done in the hurling world in the last few years suggests that they would be entitled to be such clear favourites here anyway, many of their players still have a lot to prove.

However if we learned nothing else from last night’s desperately disappointing FBD league final, it’s clear we should beware of college teams with bigger fish to fry. NUIG really phoned it in against Mayo, and while it was an improved performance from James Horan’s charges, the game was still rendered lifeless by the half hearted efforts of the students who clearly are much more interested in this week’s battle with St Mary’s teacher training college at Dangan.

This Thursday Waterford IT face a very tricky trip to Cork IT in the first round of the Fitzgibbon Cup and that will of course be their main priority. With that in mind, it’s easy to see why punters are piling into Clare, though one suspects there may have been a bit of an over-reaction at this stage as there is probably some bets being struck that owe more to lemming-like following the money than any real insight.

The match between Galway and UCD seems to be subject to the same behaviour, though in this instance, it’s hard to see why. UCD are in the same Fitzgibbon group as Waterford IT and Cork IT and they have no fixture in that competition this week. As such now would be the perfect time for a really high class challenge match and with home advantage, this column finds it very hard to fathom how punters are backing Galway with such confidence in a game that is exactly what UCD would want right now. After all this is Galway’s first competitive fixture under Anthony Cunningham’s reign and even though the for St Thomas’ player is a dab hand at multitasking in the GAA management world, he still has a lot on his plate, preparing for an All Ireland semi final with Garrycastle. We’d like to know a little bit more about UCD before piling into them, but in this instance the odds of 1/5 about Galway winning at Belfield seem far too short to make any appeal and could come back to haunt some of the lemmings out there.

Not a bad weekend from the StarBets.ie team with winners at Punchestown,  Kempton and the NFL playoffs keeping the wolves at the door. On the site today, the hottest tips from today’s cards at Plumpton and Wolverhampton with 3-1 shot One Way or Another flagged to get the week off to a great start.

We’ll keep an eye on the value to be had as Premier League leaders Manchester City take on bottom feeders Wigan in the televised clash as the DW stadium tonight. Of Irish interest here is Conor Sammon who is around 11/1 to be first goalscorer but it’s hard to see a shock in store for Roberto Mancini’s men.

Michael Hughes believed Roger Federer, at 4/1, looked a good price to claim the spoils of the Australian Open. Both the Swiss legend and Spain’s Rafael Nadal gained easy passage to the second round with comfortable first round victories. It can only get interesting.

Kevin Egan reviews all the provincial GAA action for you and sees if his weekend selections returned a few quid.
If there’s anything the StarBets.ie team can do you for you or if you need a steer on a race, game or event drop us a line @irishstarbets on the Twitter machine or leave a message on the site. You’ll also find us on Facebook!

The biggest winner’s cheque in golf is up for grabs this week at the Lake Malaren Shanghai Masters. It means there are many star players here to compete for the win and the €1.5 million first prize on offer.
The tournament is essentially another in the long list of flashy exhibitions matches being hosted in the far east by lucrative organisers, however, with the strong field on show and the huge winner’s purse, this one should be a bit more interesting.

It’s no surprise to see Rory McIlroy at the top of the betting market and the U.S. Open champion can be backed at 5/1 with bet365. The Northern Irishman is sure to be one of the biggest draws with the crowds this weekend, but also with the media. McIlroy recently left the ISM agency and manager ‘Chubby’ Chandler for Horizon and there are sure to be some questions asked about the young man’s sudden switch.

Will it affect his golf? Probably not, but the recent travelling he has been doing should. He played just last week at the Grand Slam of Golf in Bermuda where he came third before stopping off in Istanbul on his way to China to spend time with girlfriend Caroline Wozniacki. Players need time to acclimatise to playing golf in Asia as it is drastically different than in the U.S. and McIlroy might not have accounted for this in his preparation.

A former ISM colleague of McIlroy is second in the market, world number two Lee Westwood. The Englishman can be backed at 11/2 and even if those odds seem a little short you have to consider taking them when you look at Westwood’s recent record in Asia.

The last three tournaments Westwood has played on the continent have all culminated in victories – the Indonesian Masters, Ballantine’s Championship and China Golf Challenge. He is a player who is well use to this environment and certainly likes playing golf in these surroundings. A superb competitor, Westwood is sure to be in contention come Sunday and should be taken at those odds before they shorten over the weekend.

KJ Choi at 10/1 is next up in the market and he is no stranger to winning in Asia himself. Just last week he won his own tournament at Haesley Nine Bridges Golf Club in South Korea which was good preparation. Masters champion Charl Schwartzel is just behind Choi at 12/1 and the South African is coming off the back of a second place finish at last week’s Grand Slam of Golf.

Looking at some European players for the week, three familiar names stand out who have an interesting stat. Padraig Harrington (16/1), Paul Casey (20/1 and Ian Poulter (20/1) have all won in Asia in the past. Harrington and Poulter both had their last stroke play victories in Malaysia and Hong Kong respectively, while Casey also experienced success the last time he played on the continent in Korea.

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Lake Malaren Shanghai Masters Tip

Lee Westwood @ 11/2 (bet365)

144 runners have been declared for Navan on Wednesday, the seven-race flat containing some interesting maidens and the return of Dermot Weld’s high-class bumper and hurdle winner Hidden Universe.

The card starts at 2:35pm with a 5f maiden for three-year-olds and upwards.

Karjera finished two places ahead of the free-going Judies Child when fourth at Dundalk five days ago. She was a little unlucky in running on that occasion and the form looks good enough to make her competitive in a modest opener.

Balmont Mast probably has the best overall form on offer and has to enter calculations, while Diamond Noir and Power To Excel rate as the interesting newcomers.

Velesgo is tried in first-time headgear and also drops to the minimum trip for the first time. Overall, though, Karjera gets the nod.

In the 5f Apprentice Handicap (3:05), Bubbly Bellini catches the eye. He impressed in the paddock and then looked unlucky when second to Kateeva at Laytown 28 days ago.

He rarely runs a bad race and, with the Laytown winner having gone on to win from a higher mark at Listowel, the form looks solid.

There are a number of useful hurdlers and bumper winners in the 2m maiden at 3:35, chief among them being the Dermot Weld-trained Hidden Universe, a high-class bumper and hurdle winner.

Even though he was beaten in this race last year, he will surely have been primed to make amends today. Louisville Lip and Chaperoned are rated as his main dangers.

There are plenty of unraced and interesting newcomers in the 8f Fillies’ Maiden at 4:05, including the Aidan O’Brien-trained Hasten and Kissed, plus Posh Frock, Sinetta and Something Graceful. O’Brien also runs Purple, who has shown some racecourse promise.

Redoubtable, who is rated 92, has the best form on offer and was not disgraced in Group company three runs ago, while Posh Frock’s trainer Jessica Harrington also runs Violent Lashes, who showed promise when fifth on her Curragh debut.

Voleuse de Coeurs showed good promise when third on her debut at Gowran Park and comes firmly into the reckoning. Like Redoutable, she is owned by Lady O’Reilly, who looks to have a very good chance of landing the prize.

Voleuse de Coeurs, Kissed and Redoutable form the short list for the race, with Voleuse de Coeurs just given the nod.

There are also a number of interesting newcomers in the 8f maiden for colts and geldings (4:35).

Chief among these look to be Dermot Weld’s Diplomat, Aidan O’Brien’s Warwick Avenue, Tower Rock and Hail, who is still entered in the Racing Post Trophy, Jim Bolger’s While You Wait, Jessica Harrington’s Heroic Endeavour and Kevin Prendergast’s Naael.

The best racecourse form on offer comes from Quote Of The Day, who was third on his Listowel debut, although Stagecoach looks to be improving based on his latest run.

It is not an easy race to assess and the betting may well prove useful but Warwick Avenue, a son of Montjeu, is tentatively selected.

The two that catch my eye in the 10f handicap (5:05) are Leroy Parker and Tupelo Honey.

The Dermot Weld-trained Leroy Parker looked an improved performer when winning at Sligo last time, despite drifting left in the closing stages. He has been raised eight pounds for that success but certainly holds scope for further improvement.

He is rated as the one to beat and is the NAP of the day. Interestingly, he races in a first-time tongue-tie today.

Tupelo Honey is closely-weighted with Maal based on their Curragh runs last time and, with Johnny Murtagh replacing an apprentice rider, a bold showing is anticipated.

The card closes with a 10f maiden (5:35), in which Tugboat can score. He was a promising fifth at The Curragh last time (Smithfield was second in the race, Aidan O’Brien’s Inner Realm was seventh, Salam Kalayum was ninth, Man Of Erin was 14th, Ansgar was 15th and Whiteside was 22nd) and should improve for that run.

Johnny Murtagh is sure to make good use of him today as he is bred for middle-distances and he can go well.

Sunset Stanza was well beaten on heavy going last time having shown promise on his debut. He is fitted with first-time blinkers now and steps up in trip, while Smithfield has been knocking at the door and his overall form – which includes finishing ahead of Tugboat at The Curragh (as mentioned above) – entitles him to serious consideration.

The market may throw up some clues, but Tugboat might ultimately provide the answer.

Navan Tips:

2:35 – Karjera 6/1
3:05 – Bubbly Bellini (NB) 6/1
3:35 – Hidden Universe 6/4
4:05 – Voleuse de Coeurs 5/2
4:35 – Warwick Avenue 11/4
5:05 – Leroy Parker (NAP) 8/1
5:35 – Tugboat 5/1

Sunderland v West Brom: Sunderland @ 5/4

Both teams have had average starts to their campaigns but the Black Cats should make home advantage count when they welcome West Brom to the Stadium of Light on Saturday. Steve Bruce’s side have had mixed results so far this season with their latest result a 2-1 loss to new boys Norwich. That came after a 4-0 home win against Stoke where the side looked to be set to enjoy a run of decent results. New signings Brown, O’Shea, Larsson and Bendtner will be keen to get their second home win of the season in front of their fans.

Opponents West Brom have also struggled to find consistency after impressive performance in their opening two games of the season against Man United and Chelsea. They have struggled to find the net in recent weeks and were largely outplayed in their last game against West Brom.

Sunderland’s new signings are still getting to know each other and are capable of beating most teams in the league. They will bounce back from their loss to Norwich with a win on Saturday.

Tip: Back Sunderland to beat West Brom, 5/4

There are plenty of big games this weekend and none bigger than the Old Firm derby at Ibrox on Sunday.

After last season’s seven meetings, this first match between the two feels fresh, though that is not what Celtic will be after Thursday’s sobering experience in Madrid.

This is certainly the match to come back to for Celtic because tiredness won’t be an issue.

Still I am going to side with Rangers and they are a tasty 6-4 with sportingbet to win this one.

Elsewhere in the SPL, the remaining five matches are on Saturday, but such is the up and down form that I wouldn’t advise you to back any team, though if you are struggling to find teams for your perms, I think Dundee United will beat Inverness and they are 4-5 with sportingbet and Unibet.

The Championship in England is almost as unpredictable as the SPL but I have picked a couple of teams to follow.

Derby can beat Nottingham Forest in the battle for East Midlands supremacy and Nigel Clough’s team are a whopping 7-2 with bet365 and bwin.com.

Blackpool look like they will mount a solid play-off campaign and Ian Holloway’s side can win at home to Cardiff with Unibet going 15-13.

Crystal Palace have had a better than expected start to the season and they can win at home to Middlesbrough at 21-10 with bet365 and bwin.com.

Down the leagues, Brentford (11-8, bet365), Carlisle (19-10, Unibet) and MK Dons (13-10, general) get the nod in League One, while in League Two I advise backing AFC Wimbledon (5-4, bwin.com), Oxford (6-4, bwin.com, bet365) and Rotherham (2-1, bet365).

Napoli had a great draw at Manchester City on Wednesday, but I am backing them to come unstuck at home to AC Milan on Sunday night.

The Milanese giants are as big as 9-5 with Unibet and I think that is a bet well worth taking, as Milan had a good away draw of their own at Barcelona in midweek.

Juventus look tough to stop already and without a European campaign to bother with they will have a total focus on Serie A.

The 2-1 quote about them at -1 with bet365 for their trip to Siena on Synday afternoon could prove an absolute steal.

Barcelona will be aiming to get back on the winning track in La Liga after a pair of 2-2 draws.

Bwin.com make Barca as ‘big’ as 3-10 to beat Osasuna at -1 on the handicap – the serious punters will be lashing into that as other firms have them 4-6 at -2.

I would be more interested in Unibet’s 9-5 for there to be more than 4.5 goals in the game.

Real Madrid have two games coming up in three days – there is a midweek programme in Spain – and they are at Levante on Sunday evening.

I’ll go with wins for Mourinho’s men of 3-0 at 7-1 with bet365 and Unibet and 3-1, which is a 19-2 shot with the latter firm.

Athletic Bilbao are always worth following when they are decent odds at home and most firms make them evens to see off Betis in Sunday’s late game.

The start of the Bundesliga has been dominated by Bayern Munich and by Mario Gomez, who has scored more goals on his own than all but four of the other 17 clubs.

After a great win at Villarreal on Wednesday Bayern will be hoping for more of the same at Schalke on Sunday, but I take Raul’s team to stun them at a very decent price of 4-1 with bet365 and Unibet.

Hoffenheim have also started brightly and they can win at home to Wolfsburg on Saturday afternoon at odds of 20-19 with Unibet.

Finally, moving on to France and Marseille will be desperate to show something having got just three points from five games.

A trip to Lyon should stir them to a big performance on Sunday night, but I can see the draw in this one, which is 23-10 with bwin.com.

Elsewhere a little double on Auxerre and Nice can pay dividends at 3-1 with bet365, while Sochaux are worth a little bet at 7-1 with the same firm.

Two League One sides take on the big boys in Sunday’s FA Cup ties, with Huddersfield going to Arsenal, while Notts County host Manchester City.

I can’t see past an Arsenal win in the first game of the day at the Emirates and I think that scores of 4-0 (9-1, Skybet, sportingbet) and 4-1 (14-1, Boyles, totesport and Victor Chandler) are about right.

It won’t be so easy for Manchester City, with Notts boss Paul Ince desperate to get one over his old Serie A playing rival Roberto Mancini.

Mancini seems to really want the FA Cup though and you have to believe he will continue to play strong sides in the competition, which makes them the obvious bet, even at 4-9 with Betfred and bet365.

Fulham host Tottenham in an all-London, all-Premier League clash and I can see a stalemate in this one. Fulham are a tough home proposition and will be difficult for Spurs to beat so the draw looks a top bet at 5-2 with Betfred.

In the other two FA Cup games, a draw is also taken in West Ham-Nottingham Forest and that is also 5-2 with Betfred, while Stoke can win at Wolves at 11-5 with Coral, bet365 and Victor Chandler.

In Scotland Rangers meet Motherwell in the second CIS Cup semi-final at Hampden Park. I see a win for the Gers at around 4-9 and correct scorelines of 3-0 to Walter Smith’s side at 9-1 (extrabet, William Hill, Bet365) and 3-1 (11-1, Skybet, extrabet, Hills) will give you a good run for your money.

Draw specialists Dundee United take on Hibernian in the SPL and the stalemate looks way too big at 11-4 with totesport.

On to Europe and Real Madrid are as ‘short’ as 1-3 with most firms to win at Osasuna and I’ll take that on rather than finding value in other markets.

Espanyol could be a good shout as they are 6-4 with Betfred and Stan James to win at home to Villarreal.

Inter Milan look another good side for your accumulators when they play Palermo at the San Siro. Leonardo’s side are an 8-11 shot with Hills and Chandlers.

Lecce are in good form lately and can win at home to Cesena at 23-20 with Skybet and Victor Chandler.

Stuttgart (6-10, William Hill) are another side for any perms in Germany, while in France Marseille can win at Monaco at a price of 6-5 with most bookies.

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