Looking to a few long shots mainly, to fly the flag for us today at Down Royal and the Curragh.

Down Royal 2.05 : BACK TO BALLOO (11-10)
Back to Balloo recorded a nice performance when second to Simon Grey at Fairyhouse recently and that form sets the standard here. The six-year old grey gelding had some fair sorts in arrears that day, including He’s Our Man, who franked the form when winning at Limerick on Saturday.

Local trainer Colin McBratney has booked Ruby Walsh for the mount and his previous hurdling experience could prove decisive against a couple of dangerous rivals emerging from the Bumper sphere.

Down Royal 4.10: WESTMEATH (12-1)
The ground is forecast as Good to Firm at Down Royal and one horse who has been waiting for dry ground conditions is Westmeath. Paul Nolan’s charge has struggled in very testing conditions all winter but he remains a horse with plenty of ability and a return to quicker ground could spark a revival in his fortunes today. The selection ran much better than his finishing position suggested in a very competitive handicap hurdle at last year’s Punchestown festival and displayed plenty of promise initially over fences this season.

His win at Gowran earlier last October was a good effort and he ran a decent race for a long way against useful types Donnas Palm and Foildubh (Winner off 137 at Punchestown Festival) in the Flyingbolt Chase at Navan. The son of Kayf Tara has not been getting home in races run in very soft ground but he should bounce much better off a drier surface and can improve on recent efforts.

Curragh 3.55: NEW MAGIC (EW 33-1)
Taking a stab with a rank outsider here in New Magic who has dropped 17lb in the ratings from a year ago. Formerly, quite a useful handicapper , this Statue of Liberty mare lost her way somewhat in 2011, but she displayed enough on her two most recent starts to indicate that a revival is not out of the question. On her old form, she looks pretty well handicapped.

Currragh 4.55: CELTIC DANE (NAP EW 25-1), ATMOSPHERIC HIGH (EW 16-1)
I have a sneaking regard for Celtic Dane in this 20-runner 10f handicap. Now eight, the son of Danetime has a history of producing his best form in the early months of the season and appeals as quite attractively handicapped today.

He was a surprise winner of the Ulster Derby in June 2010, and really started 2011 in flying fashion, winning at Leopardstown in March and finishing third in a much more competitive race than today’s a few weeks later.

The funny thing about the horse, is that he has tended to lose his form completely later on into a season, but accordingly, his mark has dropped significantly and he races of a mark of 78 today, ten pounds lower than when third at Leopardstown a year ago.

Of the others, Lethal Weapon has to be afforded a glance given that he looks pretty well handicapped, but at the prices, it could also be worth having a small interest on Atmospheric High. The horse has been campaigned mainly at Dundalk to date, but has shaped on occasion as if there might be more to come. He will improve for racing on a soft surface today and being drawn one could help.

Summary: Down Royal 2.05: Back to Balloo (11-10)
410: Westmeath (12-1)
Curragh 3.55: New Magic (EW 33-1)
4.55: Celtic Dane (EW 25-1), Atmospheric High (EW 16-1)

MY BANKER: Back to Balloo
MY BLUFFER: Celtic Dane ( EW 25-1)
MY DREAMER: EW Patent: New Magic, Celtic Dane, Westmeath

Manchester City have got the best possible game in their revived pursuit of Manchester United for the title – a game with doomed Wolves on Sunday evening.

ARSENAL v CHELSEA, Sat 12.45pm, Live on Sky Sports 2
The Gunners’ win at Stamford Bridge was the catalyst for an Arsenal revival after a rotten start to the season and also the beginning of the end for Andre Villas-Boas (remember him?) Arsenal were beaten fair and square by Wigan, while Chelsea beat Barcelona so on that evidence Chelsea should win by about 12 goals. But the trip to the Nou Camp will affect the Blues’ thoughts hugely. That and the need to put things right make me believe that at 11-10 Arsenal are the bet here. The 9-4 about Arsenal-Arsenal in the Double Result is also worth a go.

NEWCASTLE v STOKE, Sat 3pm
The Toon are the form team of the Premier League, but Stoke would love nothing more than to come to St James’ Park and put a dent in their Champions League hopes. Though their form is not so good, I give Stoke a better chance of winning than the 9-2 available so a small bet on them could be rewarded. Peter Crouch is making a late bid for the England Euro 2012 swuad and he is overpriced at 16-5 to score at any time.

ASTON VILLA v SUNDERLAND, Sat 3pm, Live on Setanta
Villa are well in the relegation mix, especially as Bolton have two games in hand on many sides, one of which is against Villa. Sunderland, though, have only won three out of 13 games and this one screams No Bet for me.

FULHAM v WIGAN, Sat 3pm
Wigan have been on a fantastic run of late, against some of the best teams in the division, but I think they may come skidding to a halt at Craven Cottage. Fulham seem to have ironed things out and are finishing the season in decent form. At 18-19 they are pretty skinny, but I can see them winning this one.

BLACKBURN v NORWICH, Sat 3pm
Rovers seem to have blown their chance and it seems strange that a side that won at Old Trafford can go down but I think that is the fate that awaits them and a draw at 13-5 seems the best they can do here.

BOLTON v SWANSEA, Sat 3pm
Another that looks too hard to call, but Gylfi Sigurdsson is in flying form and the 9-4 about his scoring at any time looks worth backing.

QPR v TOTTENHAM, Sat 5.30pm, Live on ESPN
Unless Spurs turn things around quickly, they will be facing a 2012-13 season without the likes of Luka Modric, if Champions League football is missed. QPR, though, have built their survival bid on making Loftus Road a tough place to go and they are way too big at 31-10 to win here, having already beaten Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal here.

MANCHESTER UNITED v EVERTON, Sun 12.30pm, Live on Sky Sports 1
United are suddenly a little bit vulnerable in the title race and Everton are a side they never brush aside. I’ll go with wins for United of 1-0 (7-1) or 2-1 (17-2), while Nikica Jelavic is worth a small bit for first scorer at 11-1.

LIVERPOOL v WEST BROM, Sun 4pm
This one has disappointing Liverpool home performance written all over it. The draw is 15-4 and a bit on that is worthwhile. Of course it could go the other way but the Reds have done little to suggest that they will flatten the Baggies.

WOLVES v MANCHESTER CITY, Sun 4pm, Live on Sky Sports 1
I think there will be plenty of goals in this one, especially if Wolves know that a defeat will send them down. Over 4.5 goals is only 14-5 but I think that City will go on another scoring spree so I;ll take that. I’ll also go with correct scores of 4-1 to City at 14-1 and 4-2 at a whopping 50-1.

FOOTBALL LEAGUE
It is eyeballs out to the line now and in the Championship I expect Cardiff (8-11), Birmingham (7-5) and Hull (7-5) to get the three points on Saturday. In League One, the vote goes to Bournemouth (11-10), Chesterfield (20-19) and Sheffield United (17-10), while Wycombe are no forlorn hope at 5-1. Finally in League Two Torquay (20-19), Macclesfield (18-5) and Swindon (11-8) get the nod.

MY BANKER: Hull win (7-5)
MY BLUFFER: Liverpool-WBA draw (15-4)
MY DREAMER: Man City to beat Wolves 4-2 (50-1)

Winners could well prove difficult to come by for punters at this evening’s jumps fixture at Wexford, but in-form trainer Pat Flynn might be able to put a few quid in the coffers.
The Waterford-based handler will have been very relieved to finally get a first win over flights with Galianna at Navan three weeks ago, and having been left on the same rating of 105 after that success the daughter of Galileo should prove hard to beat in the 2m4f handicap hurdle at 5.20.

A very useful sort on the level, rated 84 when last seen in action in that sphere at Leopardstown last summer, she relishes a sound surface and ran a good race on her only previous visit to today’s venue when touched off in a maiden at the end of November. Her immediate victim last time, Cnoc Seoda, has since hacked up herself at Cork and not many of today’s rivals make much appeal.

Paul Nolan is always a man to be feared at his local track, and with Davy Russell booked for the ride his Big Generator makes plenty of appeal in the opening 2m maiden hurdle. The champion jockey-elect has given himself a few days to recover from his heavy tumble off Alfa Beat in last Saturday’s Grand National, and though his mount here disappointed in much softer conditions at Naas when last seen in action his previous efforts – in particular his two second placings in bumpers – give him a sound chance.

Corbally Cross, who has caught the eye on a couple of occasions in maiden company, is an interesting handicap debutant in the 3m hurdle at 6.50 and should be monitored closely in the market, while his trainer Edward O’Grady saddles a similar type for the preceding 2m4f event in the shape of top-weight Definite Ridge. The five year-old was only one place behind last night’s easy Tipperary scorer Pageboy when seventh to Maggie Neary on his final qualifying outing at Gowran Park last month and could be a completely different proposition now that he encounters a sound surface for the first time over jumps.

With the card at Cheltenham not as enticing as yesterday, I have just the one selection over jumps this afternoon, a hardy veteran for the long distance hurdle.  My other tip is on the sand at Wolverhampton.

Cheltenham 4.20: KAYF ARAMIS (12/1 general each-way)
A long distance handicap hurdle at Cheltenham would not be complete without Kayf Aramis, winner of the Pertemps Hurdle at the Festival here in 2009 on his first start at Prestbury Park.  Since then he has not won at all over hurdles, but his course record since reads 233556808228.  Considering all have been high grade contests in big fields, he retains a highly consistent record and he has certainly come back to near his best this term after a modest season last year.

The application of blinkers appears to have had a positive effect and after finishing a distant but respectable second to Oscargo in December, he was touched off by the narrowest margin by Houblon Des Obeaux on New Year’s Day.  He ran much better than his 8th place suggested at the Festival last time, racing up with a strong pace all the way before tiring late on.
A slightly more cautious ride in this slightly less competitive affair would help here and after heavy rain during the day yesterday, stamina will be required which he holds in abundance.  He also seems to handle any ground so having been dropped slightly by the handicapper, he rates serious each-way value for so consistent a performer.

Wolverhampton 8.05: ONE FOR JOULES (9/4 general)
A consistent middle distance performer, One For Joules will surely be fitter for this race after a fair return to the track here last month when 4th over a wholly inadequate 7f.
Twice a winner in Ireland last spring, she showed great improvement over hurdles in the autumn, winning twice in easy fashion before falling when looking likely to finish a decent second at Cheltenham in October.  Given time to recover from that, she showed she retained her enthusiasm with that race here last month, but considering her two wins on the level have come over 11 and 12f, todays trip is surely more suitable.

If she can show anywhere near the level of improvement on the flat that she showed over hurdles, she must surely be very well in off 66, plus a 5lb claim from her jockey.  The Michael Scudamore stable has showed much better form in the past few weeks, including a couple of easy winners, and One For Joules might be too quick for them this evening.

Fighting Flynn was a 15/8 winner for us yesterday.  Cheltenham stages its final two days for the professionals of the season and day one looks the stronger of the two cards.  Two competitive handicap chases are the highlights so I have a fancy for each.

Cheltenham 2.30: BOB N YOU (15/2)

He might be lacking in experience over the bigger obstacles, but there is no doubting his stamina and combined with a generous handicap mark, Bob N You looks the one to be on in this big field.

Beaten on his first six starts over distances up to 2m4f, he showed massive improvement when stepped up to 3m and beyond, winning his next three starts over hurdles – it could have been four but for falling at the last at Kempton.  He maintained his form two seasons ago right through to finishing a fine third at the Grand National meeting at Aintree.  Sent chasing the following season, he was a beaten favourite at Worcester first time out.  However in hindsight as he was behind The Giant Bolster that day, the form of that race was not too shabby.  Sadly he met with a setback and was not seen out again until reappearing in February this year.

Given a prep race over hurdles, he was then immediately dropped into the deep end by taking in the 4m contest at the Festival here, showing connections were confident in both his ability and his stamina.  Although not good enough to keep up there, he was a promising second at Kelso last time doing all his best work in the finish over 3m1f.  Given he ran so well at Aintree off 130, an initial chasing handicap mark of 116 looks more than fair, and a fresher horse than most, he looks one to keep on the right side of at the moment.

Cheltenham 3.45: THE COCKNEY MACKEM (3/1)

Today’s feature event offers The Cockney Mackem to finally break a run of placed efforts and land his first win since landing a Perth bumper on his debut in September 2010.

In eleven races since he has managed seven second placings, two thirds and two falls.  However I would not question his attitude on the evidence of his recent runs and he put in a career best over course and distance last time when chasing home Salut Flo at the Festival.  He looks one of those horses that will continue coming back for all the big handicaps here, and at the age of six should have more improvement to come.

He races from 3lbs out of the handicap here, meaning he is 7lbs higher than for that last race, but the stable has hit a good run of form once again and he has more room for improvement than several of his rivals.  Aerial has not convinced me fully that he is as well suited by this undulating track and looked better off on Newbury’s flatter track when winning a valuable prize last time, so preference is for the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained gelding.

Kempton 4.50: SANTERA (EW 25/1); CAULFIELDS VENTURE (EW 14/1)

Santera is a hard mare to predict but she is useful on her day and having shown some of her best form previously at this venue, she could be an interesting outsider today.

Her best individual performance was here at Kempton back in November 2010, when she finished a close third to the useful pair Carole’s Legacy and Banjaxed Girl in a Three Mile Listed hurdle. Her rating jumped after that effort and she was rated 139 when finishing a respectable eight to Quevega in the 2011 Mares race at Cheltenham.

The daughter of Gold Away has been on a slight downward curve since and has surprisingly made little impact in some ventures on the flat. Her penultimate hurdlers run at Sandown in March was not a bad effort though, where she finished a good fourth in a decent handicap hurdle. Indeed, the form got a good boost when the horse who just finished in front of her, Kasbadali won a competitive Ascot handicap on the April 1st.

Santera raced very free next time at Wincanton and ran poorly but perhaps the bigger field today will help her to settle better in the early stages. She is hard to predict but at a big price, she could be worth a small interest in case things click for her.

Caulfields Venture is quite an unexposed type who may be capable of stepping up on previous form.

He showed promise in a Novices Hurdle at Chepstow last October finishing fourth behind three decent rivals who are all rated around 120 now at this stage. Andy Turnell’s charge then ran his most interesting race in an Ascot handicap won by Water Garden last December. Having been settled out the back, he travelled noticeably well for a long way before tiring in the straight but hinting at possibly better to come when dropping in trip or indeed encountering quicker ground.

A subsequent poor Hereford effort can be excused again on the basis of soft ground and after a few months break, he could be a horse capable of better. From the foot of the weights he looks reasonably handicapped and might be worth a small speculative interest also.

The jumpers take centre stage again today with Exeter and Kempton holding fair end of season cards, so one selection is taken from each card.

Exeter 3.00: COUNTING HOUSE (6/1 general)
A useful hurdler on his day, Counting House has the ability to win at this level and will be fresher than most on only his third start of the season.
Whilst he is not the most consistent of horses, he is at his best on good ground or faster and was an impressive winner at this time last year over 3m at Newbury.  Highly tried on his next two starts at Cheltenham, he did not prove up to that level, but having missed the winter to avoid soft ground, he put in a promising effort at Towcester last month.

Not knocked about when staying on into third, he clearly needs a test of stamina, so this undulating 3m will be ideal for him.  He is a previous course winner having won a novice event back in 2007.  He is lightly raced for a 9yo so should be capable of winning from his current mark of 119, only 4lbs higher than for his wide margin Newbury win.

Kempton 3.20 FIGHTING FLYNN (SP)
He might still be a maiden after four starts, but Philip Hobbs clearly thinks this gelding has some ability as he has already been quite highly tried for a youngster, so this drop in class should be well within his scope.

Connections sent him straight hurdling this season and he was a fair fourth on debut at Lingfield in November.  He stepped up on that next time at Ascot when a close second over 2m6f, and was then pitched into Grade 2 level at Haydock where subsequent Cheltenham winner Brindisi Breeze was far too good.  He must have been showing some good signs at home as Hobbs is not usually a trainer to pitch horses in races above their level of ability.

He shaped like a future winner again at Newbury last time when an always prominent third over 2m5f on ground as quick as he has yet raced on.  Overnight rain is likely to ensure a little cut in the ground which should be ideal for Fighting Flynn and with those runs behind him, ought to be able to win a race of this type before he is presumably sent over fences next season.

It’s been notable that many of Aidan O’Brien’s horses seem to have been in need of their seasonal debuts this year, and with that in mind form pick David Livingston might be worth opposing on his return to action in the Ballysax Stakes.

A very useful juvenile in 2011, he wound up the campaign with a narrow victory over the exciting Akeed Mofeed in the Beresford Stakes and looks set to take high rank amongst this season’s three year-olds but perhaps he could be vulnerable today and with his stable in such great form the vote goes to Light Heavy. Jim Bolger’s charge showed a good attitude to score at the last meeting here and holds Group 1 entries further down the line.

O’Brien’s Up, who suffered a costly defeat on her reappearance at Dundalk, should have no excuses in terms of fitness in the 1000 Guineas Trial but faces no easy task in a race that is well worth its Group 3 status. Fire Lily, placed at the highest level last term, sets a very high standard on form and hails from a stable that has also made a flying start but a chance is taken instead on Kevin Prendergast’s exciting Bulbul. The Shamardal filly must step up significantly on the form of her maiden success at Naas but is held in high regard and is sure to be ready to do herself justice.

Furners Green, who appeared to be undone by lack of an outing when also turned over here last month, can see off Akeed Wafi to gain compensation in the 2000 Guineas Trial, while the clash of prolific course specialist Famous Name and recent Irish Lincolnshire hero Sharestan in the Listed Heritage Stakes promises plenty of fireworks, with the younger horse just preferred.

JP McManus had to endure a very tough day at Aintree yesterday but Fever Pitch, whose yard was on the mark with Authinger in yesterday’s opener, may give him some cheer by capturing the 5.15 event at Tramore, a 2m6f handicap chase which he sponsors under the MArtinstown banner.

Selections
Leopardstown
Forester 1/1
Furners Green 8/11
Sharestan 13/8
Bulbul 11/2
Light Heavy 11/4
Bankroll 5/1
Rising Wind 7/1
Tramore
Rising Time 9/4
The Gnathologist 5/1
Mazuri Cowboy 2/1
Annie Other 3/1
Spill The Beans 4/1
Fever Pitch 4/1
Stormy Oscar 5/1

A cracking finish to the Aintree meeting with four more winners yesterday.  Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre’s wins were something of a formality, but Oscar Whisky landed the nap (advised 5/2) and Lifestyle hit the jackpot with the radar buster (advised 40/1, SP 28/1).  Two Peter Bowen trained horses stand out at Ffos Las today.  Both will appreciate the drying ground and both are now dangerously well handicapped after the stable’s recent lean spell which could be coming to an and after a fine Aintree meeting for the yard.  The Bowen team traditionally hit the ground running as summer approaches and this year could see more of the same.

Ffos Las 3.15: MUMBLES HEAD (8/1 general)

This horse was a real useful novice chaser a couple of seasons ago.  After winning his first chase at Newcastle, he gave subsequent RSA Chase winner Weapons Amnesty a real race next time and then finished third in a couple of Grade 2 events.  I fancied him strongly for the 2010 Summer National at Uttoxeter off a mark of 137 and he was still cruising when falling three out.

Off the track for 18 months after that, he has not reproduced his best since, but there were promising signs at Newbury in a Veterans Chase last month where he showed up well for a long way before fading.  The form of that race is working out well with both Marufo and Hello Bud running well at Aintree yesterday and Mumbles Head’s last run at this track is easily forgiven as the ground had turned out to be far too soft for him.

The handicapper has been incredibly generous by allowing him to drop from 120 at Newbury to just 101 today and if this horse can emulate the efforts of several stable mates who left their poor form well behind them at Aintree, he could be very well in here.

Ffos Las 4.25: LAMBORO LAD (6/1)

Another Bowen inmate, Lamboro Lad has actually been running much better than most this winter, but he is another horse who much prefers top of the ground and will enjoy today’s conditions much more.

He was placed in all 6 novice hurdles he ran in on good ground, winning once, but was another to have his career interrupted by injury and he missed the whole of last winter’s campaign.  Understandably rusty on his first couple of starts he was well beaten on unsuitably slow ground.  However all three of his most recent runs have been perfectly respectable including a 4th place at Doncaster over 3m.  His winning form has come over this 2m4f trip though, so a drop back today should not hinder him.

If he mirrors the recent improvement of the yard, he is another that looks on a mark that could be exploited to good effect.

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