So Camelot was worth backing at 10/11 after all. Who would have thunk?

Ladbrokes would have thunk for starters. Indeed, Ladbrokes did thunk. Ladbrokes were 6/4 when everyone else was 9/4 and 5/2. It wasn’t that they wanted to duck Camelot, it was more that they didn’t even want to be on the pitch when the Camelot ball was being hurled at head-height. As ducking things go, this one had feathers and a beak.

You know that Ladbrokes are good, and you know that they are even better when it comes to Ballydoyle horses. Maybe it was that they took a strong view about the Leopardstown race that Camelot won, as their spokesman David Williams said after the Racing Post Trophy on Saturday, but it had to have been difficult to take that strong a view of a race in which three of the five runners had subsequently run a collective total of seven times, and none of them had won.

Also, that race was in mid-July, exactly 100 days before Saturday’s race. Camelot had almost certainly had at least a slight setback in the interim, it can’t have been the plan to go straight from a July maiden to the Racing Post Trophy in October. Maybe Ladbrokes were more impressed with the gallops reports than most.

Camelot is why juvenile races are so difficult from a betting perspective. You have so little evidence to go on. Same with bumpers and juvenile hurdles in National Hunt. You have to balance gallop reports and trainer quotes and market moves against performances that you have witnessed on the racecourse, and put all that into a tissue. Not easy.

Like, how could you have compared Camelot’s strength in the market, an Aidan O’Brien-trained colt who had danced in on his sole start in a race that hadn’t worked out well, with Zip Top’s latest promising run in a Group 3 race, or with Fencing’s impressive win in a listed race? I suppose your psychological make-up, your betting methodology, will determine whether you give more weight to reports from home or to evidence from the racetrack. Mine gives precedence to the latter, which is generally a losing strategy when a Ballydoyle hot-pot bolts up.

However, just because it turns out that Camelot was worth backing at 10/11, it doesn’t mean that he was necessarily value at that before the race. We have been here before. Value is a subjective entity in horse racing. It is based on opinion. Just because tails comes up in the toss of a fair coin, it doesn’t mean it was value at 10/11. Was Camelot more likely than tails? Turns out, he was, but nobody could have known that for sure before the race. Next time, it could work out differently. Stick with the betting strategy that suits your attitude.

That said, it was difficult not to be deeply impressed by Camelot’s performance. Even if you did will him off the bridle earlier than the two-furlong pole, even if you did hope that he wouldn’t find as much as he did when Joseph O’Brien gave him a squeeze as you watched the race live, it doesn’t mean that you couldn’t go back and appreciate a potentially top class colt go through his paces.

The time may not have been outstanding, it may have been comparatively slower than the listed juvenile race on the card, and Camelot may only have beaten a maiden winner and a listed race winner into second and third places, but the placed horses were hugely progressive coming into the race, and the winner toyed with them. This was a Group 1 contest, and Camelot seemed to win it without being asked to come out of second gear.

Guineas or Derby? Derby I’d say. Aidan O’Brien already has Power for the Guineas, and the Racing Post Trophy is usually a race for juveniles who will be middle distance performers the following year, not milers. It has been won by three subsequent Epsom Derby winners and one subsequent St Leger winner in the last 10 years, and no subsequent 2000 Guineas winners.

7/2 anyone?

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

The Racing Post Trophy holds an element of sentiment with me as it was pivotal in initiating my obsession with flat racing. I was a little nipper and my dad was parked up in his armchair tuned into Channel 4 to watch the final British Group One of the season. I starred relatively uninterested as the little dots on the screen galloped around the track until one hit the front and almost sprouted wings. It was 1994 and Celtic Swing demolished the field with an awesome 12 length victory. That was the first time racing gave me goose bumps.

But leaving nostalgia behind where it belongs, what’s going to win this year’s renewal? Well it’s no secret that Ladbrokes think the answer is Camelot. We’ve tried to keep him onside since we opened the book but even with our attempts to duck it, the punter’s have come in their droves to back him with their attention extening as far as the Derby, leaving his price for next year’s Classic at 10/1 from a lengthier 16/1 earlier in the week.

He returned at 1/3 for his racecourse debut at Leopardstown so clearly there were very high hopes for this colt before he hit the track. He executed his victory like a pro with young Joseph barely flinching in the saddle as he accelerated for home. There is absolutely no doubt that we have a really talented contender on our hands, but have we discounted the rest of the field too quickly?

Perhaps… And here’s why. The negative is the form of that maiden has not produced a single winner and O’Brien’s horse faced just four rivals that day so the challenge was limited. It’s nearly impossible to see the mental toughness required for a Group One in a small runner race such as it was, with the runner up currently rated just 76.

On form you could argue that Gosden’s contender Fencing is the selection; third to subsequent Acomb winner Entifaadha on his debut, he went on to break his maiden in listed company. His pedigree goes toe to toe with the favourite being the son of French Oaks winner Latice by American sire Street Cry. Camelot is by Montjeu out of a Group three winner so both have the credentials to rise to the top.

Two horses that have been supplemented are Jim Bolger’s Zip Top and Al Zarooni’s Encke. Bolger beat the odds in the Dewhurst with Parish Hall so the yard is certainly on form, whilst Dettori has ridden two winners of this race in the last five years.

But that’s just a mish mash of facts, here is the opinion. I concur with my employers that indeed Camelot is a talented juvenile based on how he looked and raced in his maiden. At odds on however I’d be looking for an alternative and Fencing looks the value to me.

The Irish Grand National, sponsored for the first time this year by Ladbrokes, is one of the great occasions in the Irish sporting calendar and the 2011 renewal of the famous steeplechase has attracted a typically competitive line-up. All the speculation in the build-up to the €250,000 contest has centred around whether Cheltenham Festival third Beautiful Sound, ante-post favourite since the weights were revealed two weeks ago, will make the final line-up but as things stand it seems unlikely. The Gordon Elliott-trained gelding, who seemed to find the 2m5f trip too sharp in the Byrne Group Festival Plate, has proved most progressive throughout the season and would almost certainly be very hard to beat if making it into the field, whereas in his absence the likes of Organisedconfusion and Saddlers Storm would come much more into the argument. The latter has been rather disappointing since coming to grief when favourite twelve months ago but the booking of Graham Lee suggests a big run could well be forthcoming ; however narrow preference at this stage is for Arthur Moore’s charge, who is relatively unexposed, can compete off a nice weight and will have the assistance of Nina Carberry.

Racing kicks off with the Grade 2 Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle, and here Voler La Vedette is fancied to take advantage of what looks a good opportunity to increase her impressive career tally to ten. Colm Murphy’s mare, who may well be coming to the end of her racing days, has been typically consistent at a high level this season and appears to have the measure of the likes of Blackstairmountain and Stonemaster on overall form. Gimli’s Rock, who was just touched off on the flat at Leopardstown last month, could prove next best now that he is race-fit once again.

Michael O’Leary’s “Deal Or No Deal” style initiative will come into play following the Irish Racing Post Point-to-point bumperr at 4.15, with the Ryanair supremo set to offer the winning connections a €100,000 carrot (with further incentives) to part with their charge. The likes of Simonsig, Kandinski and Tackmaster have already shown above average ability between the flags and are unlikely to be far away at the business end of proceedings.

Cork’s three-day bank holiday weekend fixture draws to a close this afternoon with a devilishly difficult card that caters well for amateur jockeys and point-to-point recruits, and perhaps Shane Rock will prove the best bet in the beginners chase at 4.35 if jumping a little bit better than was the case at Clonmel last time. Jockey Mikey O’Connor, who does so well on the southern circuit, has several good mounts and could well be worth following.

Fairyhouse Selections
Voler La Vedette (nap)
Rivage D’Or (e/w)
Rathlin
Tackmaster
Beautiful Sound (Organisedconfusion)
Moville
For Bill
Askmeroe

Cork Selections:
Winston Churchill
Make It Better
Optimum Force
Leave Him Alone
Shane Rock
Annacarton
Our Girl Lucy.

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The uncertainty over James McCarthy’s international future has cast a massive shadow over Ireland’s Carling Nations Cup clash with Wales tonight. And the sad thing is – all this confusion could so easily have been avoided in three easy steps…

1. Wigan should have come out with a statement on the reason for McCarthy’s absence – instead of a fuel-to-the-fire ‘no comment’.
2. The FAI and Giovanni Trapattoni should have cited the kick he received to his ankle on Saturday against Blackburn as the reason for his failure to make the match.
3. Trapattoni should have asked someone for McCarthy’s number and got in touch with the player himself – rather than relying on third-party information.

Simple!

That Trapattoni does not have McCarthy’s number is an odd one. Maybe he remembers texting the self-exiled Stephen Ireland a couple of Christmases ago – and how that failed to lure the Cobh native back. Wigan will be delighted that the midfielder is staying at the DW Stadium this week instead of travelling to Dublin for a friendly.

His three goals in four games since his return from a broken ankle have made him THE most important player in Wigan’s battle for Premier League survival. A knock or a niggle against Wales would be a massive set-back for Roberto Martinez. Like every other football-loving Irishman and women I was delighted last week when Trapattoni belatedly named the Glasgow-born star in his squad for the visit of Wales.

However, the kick he got against Blackburn last Saturday – a knock that eventually saw him replaced as he was chasing a hat-trick – on the same ankle he broke late last year changed things. So maybe it’s best for all parties that McCarthy does rest up this week, and get a few more games and goals under his belt ahead of the real deal – Ireland’s Euro 2012 qualifier against Macedonia next month.

That is if Trapattoni doesn’t hold his latest withdrawal against him and blank McCarthy for the March 26 clash.

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As for tonight’s game, Wales aren’t in great shape heading to the Aviva Stadium – with three defeats on the bounce and with stars like Craig Bellamy and Gareth Bale missing. So I’m going for an Ireland win 8/11 and by a two-goal margin 4/1 (Ladbrokes). And Richard Dunne at 25/1 to be first scorer is my long-odds bet.

The Championship is about as easy to fathom as the Premier League and while that is great for neutrals it makes betting that bit harder.

Instinct definitely rules form lines in this division with every side capable of beating another.

Cardiff though do look a class above most sides and that is why I’ve no hesitation in recommending them to beat Nottingham Forest at home on Saturday afternoon, with the Bluebirds a 10-11 shot with Betfred and Victor Chandler.

Two other home sides should be backed at short odds. Derby (4-6, general) can see off Scunthorpe, while pace-setters QPR can beat lowly Preston at 1-2 with Ladbrokes.

Sheffield United are due a home win and with Andy Reid pulling the strings they can beat Crystal Palace in the evening game. The Blades are 11-10 with Stan James and Ladbrokes.

Four sides catch the eye in League One, two at short order on their own patches and another pair at more juicy prices on the road.

Colchester (20-21, Betfred, Victor Chandler) look good things to beat Hartlepool, while Huddersfield can beat Exeter at a general 4-6.

Peterborough (17-4, Chandlers) and Swindon (9-5, Stan James) are our away tips. The former are a punt to nothing to win at Southampton, while Swindon are real good value to win at Rochdale, especially with Charlie Austin fit and firing in goals.

In League Two Accrington (21-10, Victor Chandler) can take advantage of Stevenage’s 120 minutes in the FA Cup in midweek, while Bradford get the vote at home to Macclesfield – though they are very hit and miss at Valley Parade – take the Bantams at 11-10 with Chandlers.

We released our prices for the Ulster Senior Club Football Championship this week at Ladbrokes and I can’t imagine too many people will need prising from the floor in shock at seeing St Galls at the head of market. The Belfast club’s All-Ireland success last St Patrick’s Day was followed up a few weeks back by a nine point win over Cargin in the Antrim Final, suggesting that the spring serving of medals hasn’t spoiled Galls’ appetite for winter football.

It’s possible we are witness to the emergence a Crossmaglen-like dynasty. With the county now truly conquered into servile obedience, attention turns to retention of provincial spoils. Should Crossmaglen manage to overcome the challenge of Dromintee in the Armagh Final then they will set up an Ulster quarter-final meeting with St Galls. What an encounter this would be. A plucky confident new champion taking on a past master struggling to find the easy groove of former glory – Foreman v Ali? We offer 5/1 that Cross rope-a-dope Galls on the way to reclaiming their Ulster crown.

Next in the betting are Eoghan Rua Coleraine and Clontibret. We’ve put both of these in at odds of 7/1. Coleraine’s odds may look a little, cautious, as I’d say – or downright mean, as you’d say – when you consider that as first time winners of the Derry title this is their first venture in to senior provincial football.

Often when a club goes a generation, or in the case of Coleraine – an eternity – before winning the county title, there’s a sense that the battle is won, the glory is total and the provincial game will be a nice day out. The record of Derry clubs in this competition dictates it would be foolish to think Coleraine will adopt that attitude. The players will have plenty of time to blow off a little steam before knuckling down for a trip to face the Down champions. Derry’s representatives have reached the Ulster final in seven of the last ten years.

While I’m dishing out the stats it is worth noting that of the last seven finals only one of the 14 finalists has come from outside Derry, Antrim or Armagh. That was Mayobridge in 2004. I can guarantee that the dominance of those three counties will be broken this year – the draw has seen to that. There will be one team from either Tyrone, Fermanagh, Monaghan, Cavan or Donegal in this year’s final. Shrewd punters will have worked this out already of course and it will not escape their attention that all bar Clontibret are available at double figure odds at this stage.

If we are to take the view that Kingscourt and Naomh Conaill are not especially outstanding champions in their county then the obvious thing to do is to draw a line through them. You may say the same for Roslea. Neither Cavan nor Fermanagh has ever spawned a provincial champion, while you have to go back to 1975 to find Donegal’s last winner and, to be fair, the Ulster Club Championship wasn’t half as prestigious a title back then.

The expectation for this half of the draw is that the Tyrone and Monaghan champions would meet in a semi-final. Clontibret having the experience of a recent Ulster campaign behind them catch the eye in that scenario. Adding further weight to their case is that they defeated Tyrone’s champions Dromore last season before getting tonked by Galls. Dromore aren’t in the mix this year and Tyrone will be represented by either Coalisland or the winner of the rescheduled county semi between Omagh and Carrickmore.

Tyrone’s rise as an inter-county superpower hasn’t yet been the tide that floated all boats in O’Neill country. Indeed since Mickey Harte started turning senior teams out in September the club sides have failed to reach a senior provincial final and the Errigal Ciaran heady days that marked the turn of the century don’t look like returning to the county just yet.

I think getting behind a team from the weaker side of the draw could prove a profitable strategy, one that should create a hedging opportunity down the road if all goes to plan. Clontibret my pick.

Punt On!

Stoke may have made the big recent moves, getting rid of James Beattie and bringing in Kenwyne Jones for big money, but we think it may be a season of struggle for the Potters.

They don’t seem to have added much in the way of class and still look pretty one dimensional. Wolves in contrast have a more rounded look to them and we think they can win at home on the opening day.

Mick McCarthy’s men are a nice 6-4 with betfair, with Stoke 9-4 with Skybet and Betfred. The draw is 23-10 with Ladbrokes and totesport.

Drogheda have picked up in the last few weeks and their reward is a home tie with bottom club Bray. Drogheda still look like they will need to win a play-off to retain their Premier League place.

We think they will get a victory here and the bookies think so too with the Drogs as little as 3-4 with Boylesports and bwin.com, while the draw is a general 12-5 and Bray 9-2 with Ladbrokes.

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